Bull. Jpn. Soc. Fish. Oceanogr. 79(2), Page 52-60, 2015   Estimating the impact of global warming on the neon flying squid by using forecast OGCMs Haruka Nishikawa1,†, Yoichi Ishikawa1, Yusuke Tanaka1 and Toshiyuki Awaji1 1 Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan † E-mail: harukan@jamstec.go.jp The stock and migration ecology of the neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) winter-spring cohort depends on the feeding environment in the spawning grounds. Since the spawning grounds are confined by a sea surface temperature range of 21 to 25°C, the spawning grounds will shift in location with global warming. For that reason, estimation of the feeding environment temporal variation in the new spawning grounds is necessary to present a vision for the future fisheries. There are many climate models that have been used to simulate the future climates in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 (CMIP3). In this study, we used three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) and models from three different modeling groups (MIROC3.2 (hires), CGCM3.1 (T47) and CSIRO-Mk3.0) to estimate the feeding environment in the spawning grounds. We estimated the chlorophyll-a concentration, as an index of feeding environment, in an indirect way by using physical parameters of each model, hence these models did not output the forage, i.e., particulate organic matter and zooplankton. In our study, all simulations showed that the chlorophyll-a concentration in the spawning grounds increases continuously through the 21st century due to the spawning grounds northward shift. The better feeding condition strongly suggests an increase in stock, however, it also retains the possibility that the migration ecology will change. So, the flourishing of the neon flying squid may not link to the catch increase in the current fishing grounds. Key words: Neon flying squid, Global warming, CMIP3